Against the odds: where coffee production is booming

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Global Coffee Report explores the coffee origins where production is booming despite industry-wide climate challenges.

The global coffee industry is facing a shared challenge as the climate changes. But while setbacks in major producers such as Vietnam and Brazil have driven prices sky-high in recent months, some regions are defying the odds.

Global Coffee Report highlights the countries where production is flourishing, and explores the initiatives driving this success and the growing sentiment that coffee’s future is as strong as ever.

Heart of specialty coffee

Coffee is a critical sector for Colombia. It’s one of the main contributors to the country’s GDP, with approximately 560,000 families depending on coffee cultivation and about 2.5 million people employed.

Like many other coffee-growing regions, the country is facing climate challenges. Yet, in 2024, Colombian coffee crop yielded 14 million 60-kilogram bags – a 23 per cent increase compared to the previous year’s production.

According to German Bahamon, CEO of the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (FNC), in 2024 the Colombian crop’s value totalled more than 14 trillion pesos (US$3.14 billion).

“I think it’s very important to understand that we’re facing the same climate change conditions that everyone else has been experiencing,” he says. “Although the climate conditions we experienced over the past 12 months have been favourable, climate variability remains a challenge.

“We had good conditions last year. Our coffee plants need to go through both hydric stress and sunshine, with a period of rain, which occurred well.”

Bahamon explains the increase in Colombian coffee production is due largely to improved pest controls and adaptations to climate change. He says the country’s growers are transitioning to climate- and pest-resilient varieties, developed and provided by FNC’s National Coffee Research Center (Cenicafé).

“Eighty-seven per cent of our coffee plantations are using varieties developed by Cenicafé. They’re developed with specific traits to make the plants more resilient to climate change, pests, and diseases,” says Bahamon.

“The varieties are not F1 hybrids; they’re F5 varieties, which means it takes 20 years to develop one [variety].”

At the FNC, each farm is geolocated, allowing for precise tracking of the varieties planted. This detailed mapping supports replanting initiatives and helps increase the number of new, resilient varieties being cultivated.

“In 2024, for example, we replanted 90,000 hectares, which represents around 11 per cent of the total coffee plantation area. This replanting effort ensures we have new, robust coffee plants that will help increase yields in the future,” says Bahamon.

“By continuing to develop better coffee varieties, we are not just helping farmers – we’re also contributing to broader economic and social development in Colombia’s rural communities.”

What’s more, in 2024 the FNC allocated funds and offered subsidies to provide coffee farmers with credits to enhance their fertilisation practices in partnership with national, regional, and local governments.

“Through our stations and services, we provide farmers with the necessary knowledge to apply the right fertilisation at the right time,” he says.

As the world’s third-largest coffee producer trailing only Brazil and Vietnam, Colombia will continue to focus on steadily increasing output while maintaining the quality of its commodity brand, Café de Colombia.

“We will continue to focus on quality as our main pillar, and this is why we invest heavily in agricultural practices to ensure our farmers grow the best coffee possible,” he says.

Bahamon says the FNC is focusing on expanding the reach of its unique commodity by tapping into new key markets.

“We know Café de Colombia is very well-received globally, with demand growing in regions like Europe, the Middle East, Japan, and even China. Our proximity to North America has made us a strong partner in that region,” he says.

“We’ve built solid relationships with partners in the United States over these 97 years. That said, we’re not just focusing on North America, but we are looking to expand in places like the Middle East and China where demand is rising steadily. We want to continue being that reliable partner and grow our presence internationally.”

Bahamon explains the FNC’s immediate goal is to position Colombia as a dependable source of coffee in the global market.

“We’re the only country in the world with an organisation like the FNC, which oversees every coffee farmer in the country. We’ve been doing this for almost a century and it’s now part of the DNA of Colombian agriculture,” he says.

Cultural pillar

In Ethiopia, coffee is also a major pillar in the economy, especially as a foreign currency generator. It is the leading agricultural export crop, and over the past five years its contribution to the economy has grown significantly.

Culturally, coffee is integral to Ethiopian identity, especially in rural areas. Coffee ceremonies are a social tradition, in which people gather, drink coffee, and share ideas. Rural households typically brew coffee three times a day, with each round offering nine cups. And in recent times, urbanisation has driven a surge in domestic consumption.

This growth, combined with rising export revenues, has led to coffee transitioning from a local staple to a valued export product. Today, coffee is considered a cornerstone of the Ethiopian economy, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed citing the commodity as not just an economic driver, but rather the “foundation of [the country’s] culture and identity”.

During a Coffee Awards and Recognition program at the Ethiopian Science Museum in October 2024, Prime Minister Ahmed said in the past five years the country has doubled its annual coffee production from 500,000 tonnes to more than one million tonnes – despite suffering from what has been described as the worst drought in recent history.

In 2018, Ethiopian coffee export revenue was estimated at US$900 million according to Prime Minister Ahmed. It jumped significantly to $1.4 billion in 2023, with aspirations to reach $2 billion this fiscal year.

Israel Degefa, CEO of Kerchanshe Trading, Ethiopia’s leading coffee producer and exporter, says the key drivers of this growth are government-led initiatives.

The current government has implemented the Green Legacy Initiative, an agriculture development policy mainly focusing on coffee, tea, and cereal crops.

“Coffee was identified as one of the key cash crops and the government has been investing in different coffee-growing regions, expanding coffee-growing areas, planting more coffee seedlings, and replacing old coffee trees with new ones,” says Degefa.

“There have been several projects and programs, and I think the results are starting to show this year, with continued growth expected next year. Since the government introduced agricultural incentives, we’ve established additional farms and are focusing on higher productivity and premium coffee production. Some of these areas have already started producing coffee this year.”

The Green Legacy Initiative, which was established in 2019 with a goal of planting 20 billion seedlings nationwide, exceeded this target in 2023 by five billion.

Degefa says the goal for the Ethiopian coffee sector as laid out by the government is to export more than one million metric tons of coffee, which would mean total production will reach around two million metric tons, since domestic consumption constitutes more than 50 per cent.

In addition to the Green Legacy Initiative, the government has made it easier for farmers to access agricultural tools such as irrigation systems, tractors, and harvesters, which are now duty-free. They’re also offering cheap loans to support agricultural development.

For Kerchanshe Trading, Degefa says the company’s farms have seen even greater growth than the government’s target. It works with more than 56,000 out-grower farmers who supply exclusively to the company. At the same time, Kerchanshe operates more than five of its own farms, four of which are fully mechanised and irrigated with a direct irrigation system.

“Our farms are very different from the government’s traditional methods. We don’t rely on rain-fed farming, instead we use fully irrigated farms with a higher density of coffee trees,” says Degefa.

While traditional methods usually entail planting 1200 shaded trees per hectare, Kerchanshe Trading plants between 5500 to 10,000 trees per hectare with no shade on its irrigated farms. This has led to a yield approximately four or five times greater than the government’s target.

Degefa explains the Government has also removed currency exchange controls and introduced incentives, which has significantly improved the export sector.

“They’ve also allowed exporters like us to use 50 per cent of our currency earnings for our own operations, which is an incentive. The currency is now market-driven, which is a major improvement over the previous system, where we faced significant challenges,” he says.

Finally, the Government is also working towards efficient logistics and agricultural innovation, including a railway dedicated to coffee and other agricultural exports that helps move cargo more easily to the port.

The genetic key?

Yemen has emerged as an underdog in the global coffee supply chain, with the appeal of Yemeni coffee extending beyond its unique and eclectic flavour profile.

While coffee origins worldwide face reduced output due to extreme climate events, Yemen’s coffee trees are thriving in one of the planet’s driest climates, with some of the lowest annual rainfall globally.

According to some experts, the solution to climate-proof coffee lies in the plants’ genetic makeup.

As climate concerns threaten global coffee supplies, the importance of genetic diversity has never been greater. Yemen, one of the most genetically diverse coffee-growing regions, may hold the key to coffee’s future.

At least 60 per cent of wild Arabica species are threatened with extinction because of climate stress due to their low genetic diversity. Faris Sheibani of United Kingdom-based Qima Coffee is working alongside the research community to decipher the genetic variety of coffee trees.

The next step will be to examine their attributes such as quality, climatic resilience, pest resistance, and disease tolerance, followed by climate-centric breeding programs backed by the Yemeni Government.

“There’s a lot of genetic material diversity in Yemen that can be utilised for the benefit of the 12.5 million coffee growing farms in the world,” says Sheibani. “They can be used for the benefit of other farmers who are facing the extinction of the crops because of climatic stresses.” 

The amount of coffee produced in Yemen is difficult to verify due to a thriving black market, but the latest figures from the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation report an annual production of 20,000 tons.

Sheibani believes there is much potential in Yemen’s centuries-old coffee-farming culture as the world faces ongoing climate issues.  

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